Food & BeverageGroceryInstacart
Food & BeverageGroceryInstacart

Doorstep Dash

Will the Grocery Aisle or Instacart grow transactions faster this September?

Online grocery crossed 19% of total category sales in early 2026 and Instacart grew gross transaction value 14% last quarter. Whether store trips or app orders grow faster in September is the channel shift, measured live.

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Early Pool
Grocery —
Instacart—
$
Graduation Progress8%
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Select Outcome

Early Pool
Grocery —
Instacart—
$
Graduation Progress8%
▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓
$4of $50 to graduate

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MARKET WINDOW

September 1 to 30, compared against August 1 to 31.

DEFINITIONS & SCOPE

Transaction count is the total number of verified purchase transactions on each side during the window: store trips for the Grocery Aisle, orders under the Instacart descriptor for Instacart. Walmart, Target, and Amazon grocery bill under their parent descriptors and belong to neither side. Instacart+ membership fees are out of scope. Growth is the percentage change in each side's transaction count versus August.

RESOLUTION METHOD

The side with the higher month-over-month transaction count growth rate wins. Resolution requires a minimum of 10,000 qualifying transactions per side. In the event of a tie, all positions are refunded in full.

DATA SOURCE

Powered by verified transaction data from American Spend's oracle. Anonymized, aggregated, and secured. Real, objective, verified proof of spend sourced from a representative sample of consumer spending.

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